Why George Osborne's forecast 18pc house price crash never happened after the Brexit vote

23 June 2021

The Daily Telegraph 

Back in 2016, then-chancellor George Osborne made headlines with a prediction that if Britain left the EU, house prices would fall by between 10pc and 18pc in two years.

Fast forward five years, and the forecast has not aged well. The drop never happened. In fact, in May, data from building society Nationwide showed national house prices jumped 10.9pc.

Of course, a few things have happened in the interim. The property market has been overhauled by a global pandemic, a new desire to move after lockdown and a massive tax incentive. But the fact remains that Britain’s housing market has not felt the macroeconomic shockwaves from Brexit that so many anticipated.

So what did Mr Osborne get so wrong? Or have we actually not felt the real repercussions from Brexit yet?

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